SCC Preview: Sylvania 300

That's why I'm worried about taking Kyle Busch to win the Chase. For me, it really looks like it's probably a two-man race between Johnson and Carl Edwards with Busch finishing third. I know Busch has the big lead over Johnson, but one race can eliminate that. Plus, Johnson is just tearing it up right now, and while Busch has been good, he isn't what he was for much of the season. Busch's average finishes at Loudon and Dover, the first two races of the Chase, are good (15.7 and 10.3, respectively), but those are followed up by Kansas (average finish 26.5), Talladega (27.3) and Charlotte (23.3). By halfway through the Chase, I don't expect to see Busch on top of the leaderboard.

When predicting the Chase, especially for fantasy, you have to look at how you think the driver will do for 10 races and then place him within the context of his starting position. So, as I look forward, this is how I'll rank the 12 drivers in the Chase in terms of how many points they will score in these 10 races alone.

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Carl Edwards
3. Tony Stewart
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Kyle Busch
6. Jeff Burton
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Denny Hamlin
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
10. Kevin Harvick
11. Greg Biffle
12. Clint Bowyer

Thus, I think the Sprint for the Cup champion, for the third straight year, will be Jimmie Johnson. Now let's look at Loudon for this week's Sylvania 300.

Denny Hamlin (Market value: 21.9) is the only driver even close to Jimmie Johnson in terms of a recent hot streak. Hamlin has three straight third-place finishes, and at Loudon, he has four top-10s in five starts, including one win. You can't look at Loudon earlier this year for any real indication of finish, but Hamlin knows how to run on this style of track. Even if Hamlin finishes second to Johnson, he's cheaper and will score only slightly fewer points.

Jimmie Johnson (22.8) has back-to-back victories and has a strong history at Loudon. So why is he not on top of my rankings this week? It's just THAT hard to win three races in a row. He will be competitive and will surprise me only a little if he can pull off the third in a row, but I just don't see it happening. However, he's pretty much guaranteed a top-5 this weekend and that's worth the price. Plus, he'll score so many points in the Chase, it would be good to get him now while he's "cheap".

Jeff Burton (21.6) has the most career victories at Loudon among active drivers. Of course, his 2008 season has not gone quite the way he wanted, as he had been struggling until Richmond. His sixth-place finish at Richmond, however, has me thinking that this team is back on track. It may be only one race, but it could be the start of a strong run during the Chase. This is one of Burton's best tracks and he should be a top-10 car.

One of the non-Chasers I see finishing in the top 10 this weekend is Martin Truex Jr. (18.6). He's finished in the top five in three straight races at Loudon, and his worst finish has been 22nd. Truex hasn't followed up his Chase season of 2007 the way he had hoped, but he'll still be very competitive from time to time, and this will be one of those weekends.

I wrote about Joey Logano (14.7) last week, and then qualifying was rained out and Logano was not able to make his debut. Unfortunately due to some traveling obligations, that sunk my particular SCC entry since I couldn't get back to change it. This week Logano's jumped over to the Hall of Fame Racing entry, with permission from Joe Gibbs Racing, and he'll try to qualify the 96 car. Logano didn't race in Loudon in the Nationwide Series, but he was very impressive in that series on the whole. It would be a bit much to expect a top-25 out of Logano this weekend, but his is a fun and flashy name to have on your squad.

Bobby Labonte (17.4) no longer has the car to be as competitive as he was in his days at Gibbs, but that doesn't seem to affect him at Loudon. He finished 10th there earlier this year, though that's not nearly as impressive as it seems, but he had a strong enough car to be in position for a top-10. Even on top of that, he hasn't finished worse than 24th at Loudon since 1999. That's nearly a decade of solid runs at this short, flat racetrack. Labonte is the 21st-highest priced driver and I think he can deliver a top-15 finish.

Kurt Busch (17.7) is not necessarily overpriced, but a lot of owners will look at the fact that he got a win at Loudon earlier this year and think this pick is a steal. One has to keep in mind the circumstances at Loudon, however, that got Busch the win. He would not have won had the race gone the full distance, but when rain cut it short at 284 laps, Busch found himself in Victory Lane. Tony Stewart was the car to beat that day. So, don't think that Busch will be a top-5 lock this week, though he has been strong at short tracks. His price is not a steal (it's actually quite appropriate) and his season has been too inconsistent to trust that he'll run well where he's supposed to.

Jimmie Johnson: Locking him in early for the rise in points.
Tony Stewart: The class of Loudon earlier this season and he's starting to get on a roll.
Matt Kenseth: Underrated for what I think he can do in the Chase.
Martin Truex Jr.: A one-race deal on my team for what should be a top-10.
Joey Logano: Who says I need to be immune to having the flashy name.

Kevin Rounce is an editor for ESPN Fantasy Games.